I’m the Sandy Lyle (Along Came Polly) of the hardwood. I always wished I was a little bit taller, ’cause when it comes to playing basketball I was always picked last or never picked at all. But for everyone else that can play, what does the new rules mean for degenerates like me? The NBA recently announced rule changes for the upcoming 2018-2019 season. Those changes include resetting the shot clock to 14 seconds after an offensive rebound as oppose to the current 24 seconds. Additionally, the league is streamlining the clear-path foul rule and expanding the definition of the “hostile act” to instant replay to include not just player-to-player interactions, but also any hostile interaction between a player and a coach, referee or fan.
For bettors, this small tweak to the rebounding rule could impact totals that bettors can take advantage of. For almost two decades, going back to 1998, the Pace (Average possessions per game) has increased almost ten possessions per game (1998= 88.9, 2018= 97.3). This has correlated in an increase in points per game from 91.6 to 106.3 on average per team. And during the same time, offensive rebounds per game has dropped from 12.6 to 9.7 per game. A lot of that has to do with how the game has moved to a more perimeter game as oppose to trying to work the ball inside for what use to be a higher percentage shot with the big men. In fact, 3-point attempts has skyrocketed from 13.2 to 29 attempts per game. Assuming the average offensive rebounds per game continue to average near 10 per game, that 10 second adjustment could mean an additional one minute and forty seconds of action that forces a shot. This could, if the numbers continue to average the same, 3-4 more shots per game. And considering the perimeter game, it could mean, potentially, 10-12 points more per game. Granted, that is on the high end and assuming rebounds and extra shots result in actual points. But for bettors, it’s worth keeping an eye on how the season begins when it comes to the PACE and shot attempts per game.
As always, I’m Looney…a perpetual loser, so my insight is usually as accurate as my jump shot. LET IT RAIN!